Summer Movement

Jun 7

Written By Cityfi

2,408 words in this newsletter - about 10 minutes and 7 seconds to read.

By Vicki Fanibi

Longer days and even longer bike rides – the weather is heating up and so is the transportation and planning space! Most Cityfi staff, and probably most of our readers, are reveling in the joy of city summers: outdoor concerts, picnics in the park, and late-night dancing by the water. Summer heat, however, comes at a cost: 2023 was the hottest summer on record and 2024 is on track to surpass this. The excitement remains, but how can our work respond to climate shifts?

If you’re similarly grieving the decision on congestion pricing in New York, Ryan Parzick eulogizes the policy while remaining optimistic about our climate future. You’ll also hear from Evan Costagliola on European innovation in micro-mobility, citing the need for new form factors, political will, and a market resurgence. Finally, Chrissy Anecito and Nicole Davessar share their thoughts on the impacts of climate change on geographic mobility, and an upcoming webinar series on a proactive response to climate change for cities and private partners.

During these warmer months, as we take advantage of all our communities have to offer, we are reminded of the tangible impact of our work to promote safer, human-oriented, and climate-resilient spaces. To be a practitioner in planning and mobility is to push past climate pessimism and adopt a mentality of change. Sustaining the cities and communities we love is dependent on us continuing to care and show up when it matters.

As you roll out into the long Memorial Day weekend, we’ll leave you with something to put a smile on your face. Enjoy this amazing video!

Bikes and Scoots and Trikes, Oh My!
Dispatch from Micromobility Europe 2024

By Evan Costagliola

Look… I love bikes. I love mini-mobility. I want them everywhere. If you know me at all, you know this already. But, for those that don’t know me, I’m a micromobility nerd at heart and I want more people purchasing and renting small rideables. So, it is no surprise that I was beyond thrilled to attend Micromobility Europe (MME) in Amsterdam this week. Over the past two days, I had the pleasure of meeting up with old friends and colleagues and acquainting myself with new partners, movers, and shakers in the micromobility space. While I believe micromobility circles are quite small, MME reminds me of the growing footprint of small, electric vehicles.

So what is MME? MME is an annual convening of industry leaders, product developers and operators, investors, and policymakers that serves as my reminder of the energy behind the electric micromobility marketplace and the potential for micromobility to completely transform how cities streets operate and how people experience their cities. Billed as the “world’s largest conference for small vehicles”, MME celebrates everything in the micromobility value chain - from vehicles and new form factors to the mapping, data services, and platforms that help micromobility services operate and sell to consumers in an increasingly digital mobility landscape.

MME is also a showcase of big ideas and rosy platitudes (it's an industry convening after all). I heard provocative claims like:

“Micromobility should be measured in smiles, not miles.” - A thousand times, yes!
“We need to understand the implications of AI and robotics in micromobility and rider decision-making.” - Yes! (but seriously, who wants to dive into this with Cityfi?)
“When is the autonomous bike coming?” - Hopefully never.

But in all of my conversations and the sessions I attended, I had several main takeaways:

The market is growing, but not as fast as modeled in years’ past. I received a heavy dose of market trends and insights this week that weren’t so much news, but rather an important reminder of what’s needed to accelerate demand and industry for small vehicles. The global micromobility market is expected to grow from roughly $160 billion today to $520 billion by 2035 – a slightly depressed projection from last year. This growth trend is largely driven by the popularity of the e-bike and the people’s desire to integrate micromobility more into their daily routines. E-bikes account for 40% of the total micromobility market in Europe alone. Likewise, roughly 70% of people in cities across the globe are willing to integrate micromobility into some of their daily trips. And roughly one-fifth of shared scooter and bike users are interested in purchasing their own scooter or bike. So, there is room for growth both for personal and shared micromobilities.
Lack of city representation/interest. We have a problem, folks. One of the greatest blockers to micromobility growth is regulation and safe infrastructure. There is a thin line between regulating too much and too little, and walking that line requires market understanding and relationship building between city and policymaker. And yet, I could count the number of government officials in attendance on two hands. How might we encourage public agencies, regulators, and elected officials to engage in these vital convenings? While I met with delegations of transit advocates, improvement districts, and economic development authorities, we need more city and regulator participation.
New form factors? Where are you? Past MMEs (and their companion conferences in California) showcased the growing diversity of micromobility form factors for personal, shared, and fleet use cases. We have written about the need for a more robust and mature mix of form factors to shift more people and trips away from private car use. But I only saw a handful of new form factors and power sources (hydrogen-powered bikes 🤯). I hope to see more focus on new form factors, componentry, and escalation in the urban mini-car movement. That said, I want to acknowledge Scootility, who’ve developed an innovative take on an electric scooter with cargo-carrying capacity. Investors take note.

There is so much to glean from this year’s convening, and I, for one, am energized about the direction of the industry. But there is much work to be done to ensure more micromobilities get to market and cities pave the way to capture demand and fuel more innovation. Lastly, I’d like to give a shout out to our Olso-based partners at Beta Mobility for a fantastic canal tour and their generous hospitality. Good times and good people, all around 🙂

New York Congestion Pricing Plan Parked

*Photo Source:* *Metropolitan Transportation Authority*

By Ryan Parzick

The Cityfi newsletter was all primed and ready to publish an article near the end of this month previewing the New York City congestion pricing debut. Alas, we are now disappointed to be writing a piece discussing the recently announced halting of the program, before the first vehicle could even go through the proposed zone. On June 5th, a mere 25 days before the scheduled implementation date, Governor Kathy Hochul announced that she was indefinitely suspending the plan, stating that “implementing the planned congestion pricing system risks too many unintended consequences.” While we will not use this forum to debate with the Governor or the state of politics in this country, we will use this space to advocate for and defend the intended consequences of the program.

The New York City plan has been decades in the making and was originally formally proposed in April 2007 by then-mayor Michael Bloomberg as part of his sustainability agenda. Though the proposal had public support, it was ultimately blocked by the State Legislature due to inaction before an April 2008 federal funding deadline. In 2019, after a decade of debate, congestion pricing was revived and approved by the State Legislature and Governor Cuomo as part of the state budget. The approved plan called for tolling vehicles entering a designated congestion zone in Manhattan below 60th Street. Revenue from the tolls would fund improvements to the City’s public transit system run by the Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA). After delays due to environmental reviews and assessments, the MTA Board approved the final toll rates and policies in March of 2024. Now, who knows when, or if, this plan will ever be enacted.

Why was this plan such a big deal? Not only would it have been the first program like this implemented in the United States, but the congestion pricing system had a number of benefits that would have had major impacts for millions of businesses, residents, and visitors to New York City. If successful, this plan could have had a ripple effect across the country serving as an impetus for similar systems in heavily congested cities in the U.S. The MTA had estimates it used to validate the impact of the program and to gain support, but the reality is that other major cities around the world have implemented similar programs and have had real, measured successes. London (2003) and Stockholm (2007) headline a list of cities which have been using some form of congestion pricing for at least a decade.

Traffic and Congestion Reduction: The MTA had estimated that congestion pricing would reduce traffic entering the congestion zone by about 17% with improvements in travel speed within the zone (estimated to currently average 7 mph) and also on routes to and from the zone. Meanwhile, across the pond in London, their system has reduced car traffic entering their zone by 39% between 2002 and 2014 and almost immediately reduced congestion by 30%. In Stockholm, even though the population has increased by 10% over the decade since permanent implementation of their congestion pricing program in 2007, traffic levels have decreased 22%.
Public Transportation Revival: Revenue collected by the tolls was projected to promote a virtuous cycle for the struggling MTA. It was estimated that $1 billion per year would be generated from the program, which was planned to be the foundation of a $15 billion bond dedicated for capital work on the country’s aging, but largest transit system. Upgrades and expansions in the system would have likely incentivized more residents to take subways and buses in lieu of driving. This has played out in London, where transit ridership has increased by 38%.
Environmental and Health Improvements: Overall, the reduced vehicular traffic would have lowered the CO2 emissions around 12% in the zone and close to 8% in the entire Manhattan borough according to the MTA’s CBD Tolling Program Environmental Assessment. Other air pollutants would also have seen decreases between 5% and 12% in the zone, according to the same study. In London, besides the increased air quality benefits, there has been a measured 40% - 70% fewer accidents that resulted in personal injury within the zone. Stockholm has seen a reduction of about 50% of acute asthma visits among children since congestion pricing became permanent.

We hope that this is truly a short pause in the NYC congestion pricing program. As with all things new and conceptually foreign, it takes time to adjust, evolve, and ensure benefits and impacts are distributed equitably. Economists, transit advocates, policy experts, and environmentalists believe the “good” outweighs the perceived “bad” in this case, but ultimately the implementation and operation of a congestion pricing program needs to be the case that sways the jury to accept and embrace such a monumental change. The Stockholm project initially started as a pilot program with only about a third of citizens in support prior to implementation, but a referendum was held after the pilot was in place to determine if it should become permanent and support was around two-thirds of the voters. Whatever the issues are that truly led to the decision of “postponement,” they are likely not considering the long-term and big-picture. The current traffic, transit, and air quality issues are not going anywhere and will likely continue to worsen - and we’re not just talking about New York.

The Intersection of Human Mobility and Climate

By Chrissy Anecito and Nicole Davessar

What do you think of when you hear the word “mobility?” Mobility is most often discussed in terms of public transit, walkability, and connectivity from point A to point B. However, mobility also encompasses larger-scale population movement. Recently, we’ve been thinking about how climate change–inclusive of extreme weather events as well as more gradual changes in temperature and ecosystems–is influencing human migration patterns around the world. These changes and the challenges they create sit at the intersection of human mobility, equity, and climate, three areas where the Cityfi team has deep expertise and passion. Please read our previous newsletter articles on this topic (cities expecting to experience high levels of growth and the thinking that needs to go into dealing with losing population)!

People around the world are facing direct and secondary effects of environmental disruption due to climate change, impacting their freedom of movement in myriad ways. The World Health Organization estimates that currently 3.6 billion people live in areas highly susceptible to climate change, and every region of the U.S. is experiencing the effects of climate change. These impacts vary across the nation, with severe wildfires spreading across Western states, increasing sea level rise threatening the Southern and Eastern coasts, and more frequent flooding and tornadoes in the Central U.S. Resulting destruction of homes, infrastructure, and natural ecosystems, coupled with health, economic, and energy burdens, place great strains on people and communities. These and other climate emergencies, in addition to more gradual ecosystem impacts, are catalysts for both forced and voluntary population movement. A recent report from the White House estimates that over the next two to three decades, tens of millions of people in the U.S. could be displaced due to climate. Contending with climate-induced consequences also poses significant challenges for those who cannot or choose not to move out of at-risk areas.

In the face of these realities, it is critical that cities, the private sector, and partner organizations consider how to best prepare for massive population shifts, while simultaneously increasing resiliency and protecting the communities who will continue to call impacted regions home. While it is difficult to predict specific patterns of climate migration in the coming years, we know that both voluntary and forced displacement will create dramatic population changes in our cities and communities. With that in mind, we are ready to work with local government, private sector leaders, community organizations, and academic partners in understanding the strategies and partnerships that support community resilience and adaptation in the face of climate-related migration.

To jumpstart these conversations, Cityfi is preparing a webinar series over the remainder of the year to discuss the potential needs of cities and communities as climate displacement continues, as well as promote and expand upon established and emerging best practices communities should consider as part of their toolkit of strategies to employ. Stay tuned as we have more specifics to share.

Where in the World is Cityfi?

Check out where Cityfi will be in the upcoming weeks. We may be speaking at conferences, leading workshops, hosting events, and/or actively engaging in collaborative learning within the community. We would love to see you.

IPMI 2024 Parking & Mobility Conference and Expo - Columbus, OH - June 9 - 12

Managing a Revolution: Can Disruptive Technology Bring Order and Purpose to Downtown Curbs? - Sunday, June 9th (2:00 - 3:00 PM)

In 2022, the City of Dublin developed a Curb Management Toolkit to help balance and prioritize curb uses and functions, by place, time, and purpose. In 2023, it completed a year-long set of technology pilots to secure data streams to track curb activity and conditions, guide application of the management toolkit, and inform downtown’s curb users about their options in real-time. Hear from the City’s project manager and her consultant leads (including Cityfi Senior Associate Sarah Saltz) about what they learned. See our February 10, 2023 archived newsletter post to read more about this project

While at IPMI, also be sure to say hello to Senior Associate Erin Clark who will be making the rounds talking the curb, mobility, and possibly even rules and regulations! Let Sarah and Erin know you will be there.